Game play instructions

Game Objective

The objective is to achieve the highest cumulative score at the end of Stage 5. The total score is the sum of scores earned across three game objectives:

1. Reliability: each Stage, you earn up to 5 points depending on the percentage of annual electricity demand successfully met by your resource portfolio after resolving the simulation phase (including the impacts of Demand Shocks and possible Climate Disasters). Note that Demand grows with each Stage (see Peak/Average Demand under the Game Stages).

2. Clean Energy: each Stage, you earn up to 5 points depending on the percentage of annual electricity demand generated by non-emitting (clean) resources after resolving the simulation phase (including the impacts of Demand Shocks and possible Climate Disasters). The share of clean energy is calculated as the sum of generation excluding emitting resources and energy storage divided by the total demand served. A higher share of non-emitting generation is required as the Stages progress.

3. Affordability: at the end of Stage 5, you earn 3 points per Budget token remaining. Budget tokens can be used throughout Stages to purchase additional Build tokens or Shaping tokens, but expending Budget tokens lowers your final score, so spend wisely.

Game Stages

The game proceeds through four Stages, representing a given planning period, where your goal is to build and maintain a sufficient portfolio of resources (generation & storage) to meet expected demand while meeting reliability and clean energy goals.

Uncertainty

There are four types of uncertainty to consider in your planning:

1. Demand Shocks: Demand in each Stage is uncertain and will differ from the expected values by a constant percentage throughout the year. Demand may be either lower or higher than expected.
2. Experience Curves: Expending Build tokens to construct a new resource will drive down the cost of that resource in the next Stage by approximately 2% per token, but the exact pace of cost declines is uncertain.
3. Social Backlash: Expending Build tokens to construct or maintain a resource risks triggering Social Backlash, which prevents that resource from being built or maintained in the next Stage. Each resource has a different Backlash Risk per Build token. The precise risk of Social Backlash is uncertain, but each resource type has a different relative risk: Low, Medium or High.
4. Climate Disasters: Each Stage, there is a chance of a climate-related weather disaster (flood, fires, hurricane, etc.). If a disaster occurs, each resource type faces a probability of forced outages knocking offline 50% of installed capacity for four weeks. Disaster risk increases as the Stages progress.

Phases

Each Stage proceeds through four phases:

1. The Resource Phase, where resources are built and maintained;
2. The Shaping Phase, where you choose to expend any available Shaping tokens to manage uncertainty;
3. The Simulation Phase, where a year of electricity demand is simulated and your resource portfolio is used to meet demand at least cost and your Reliability and Clean Energy scores are reported, taking into account the impact of Demand Shocks and Climate Disasters;
4. The Resolution Phase, where cost reductions from Experience Curves are calculated and Social Backlash risks are resolved and the game board is updated for the next Stage.

1. Resource Phase

Each Stage, you have a specified number of Build tokens available. Additional Build tokens may be purchased by expending Budget tokens (two Build tokens per Budget token). Build tokens cannot be saved between game rounds and any unspent Build tokens will be lost at the end of the Stage.

Each resource has a specified maintenance or construction cost which denotes how many gigawatts (GW) of that resource can be purchased for each Build token.

Existing resources (marked with orange boxes in the GUI)

In each Stage, you must expend sufficient Build tokens to maintain current capacity of existing resources or capacity for that resource will retire. Each existing resource specifies how many GW can be maintained per Build token expended. Any capacity in excess of the GWs maintained by expending Build tokens will permanently retire (close) and will be unavailable to meet demand during that Stage (e.g. capacity is retired prior to the Simulation phase). Once retired, capacity for that resource is permanently reduced for all subsequent stages. No new capacity can be added for existing resources. The cost of maintaining existing resources does not decline due to Experience Curves.

Social Backlash for existing resources

As described above, expending Build tokens to maintain existing resources risks triggering Social Backlash. If Social Backlash is triggered for an existing resource at the end of Stage 1-Stage 4, then no Build tokens can be expended to maintain the existing resource in the next Stage. As a result, all existing capacity for that resource will be forced to retire before the Simulation phase in that Stage. The precise risk of Social Backlash is uncertain, but each resource type has a different relative risk: Low, Medium or High.

New resources

Build tokens can also be used to build new resources. Each resource specifies how many GW are built per Build token. Once built in one Stage, capacity from these resources is available to meet demand during the current Stage’s Simulation Phase and in all subsequent Stages. You do not need to expend Build tokens to maintain capacity built in a previous Stage.

Experience Curves for new resources

Building new resources will drive Experience Curves which reduce the cost of constructing the resource in subsequent stages by approximately 2% per Build token spent, but the exact pace is uncertain and resolved during the Resolution phase. Note: reduced cost of construction is expressed as an increase in GW of new capacity constructed per Build token.

Social Backlash for new resources

Expending Build tokens to construct new resources also risks triggering Social Backlash. If Social Backlash is triggered for a new resource at the end of Stage 1-Stage 4, then no Build tokens can be expended to construct more of that new resource in the next Stage. Existing capacity for that resource will still be available in the next Stage. The precise risk of Social Backlash is uncertain, but each resource type has a different relative risk: Low, Medium or High.

Testing your portfolio

At any point during the Resource Phase, you have access to the Dispatch Simulator, which you can use to test a potential resource portfolio. Simply enter the capacity of each resource type and simulate a year of optimized operation to meet forecasted demand for the current Stage. By testing different portfolios, you can build intuition about the profile of annual demand and wind or solar resource variability, what mix of resources is likely to meet expected demand, and estimate what the likely Reliability and Clean Energy scores would be for that portfolio. Note however that the Dispatch Simulator does not account for any uncertainty, including Demand Shocks that can cause actual demand to differ from the forecasted demand by a constant percentage throughout the year and the potential for Climate Shocks to reduce available capacity by causing forced outages for each resource. You will have to use your own intuition to develop a portfolio that is robust to these uncertainties.

2. Shaping Phase

Each Stage, you may expend Shaping tokens to take one of four Shaping Actions which help manage the uncertainty faced during the game. You begin Stage 1 with 2 Shaping tokens, and one additional Shaping token can be purchased in any Stage by expending a Budget token. Once you allocate a Shaping token to choose a Shaping Action, you cannot change this selection later in the game (so choose carefully). You can only allocate one Shaping token per Shaping Action. You will be asked to confirm your selection of Shaping Actions before your choice is finalized.

The four Shaping Actions available are:

1. Accelerated Innovation: Expending a Shaping token on this action doubles the pace of cost reductions as each technology is deployed. The expected cost reduction from Experience Curves increases to 10% per Build token, though the actual pace of reduction remains uncertain.
2. Demonstration Program: Expending a Shaping token on this action unlocks the Clean Firm Resource. In any subsequent Stage after this Shaping Action is taken, Build tokens can be expended to construct Clean Firm Resource capacity. Note that you cannot expend any Build tokens to build the Clean Firm Resource during the same Stage that you take this action.
3. Benefits Sharing: Expending a Shaping token on this action reduces by half the probability of Social Backlash as each technology is deployed. Note that this reduction in Social Backlash risk applies to all Resources.
4. Climate Resilience: Expending a Shaping token on this action reduces by half the probability of generator forced outages when a Climate Disaster is experienced. Note that this reduction in forced outage risk applies to all Resources and that this action does not reduce the probability of a Climate Disaster occuring.

3. Simulation Phase

After completing the Build and Shaping phases, the game will simulate an entire year of operations of your portfolio of resources.

During the Simulation Phase, a random Demand Shock will increase or decrease demand by a constant percentage during each hour.

For each Stage, there is also a risk of a Climate Disaster occuring. This risk increases as each Stage progresses (the risk of Climate Disaster is higher in Stage 3 than in Stage 2 and higher in Stage 2 than in Stage 1), though the precise probability of a Climate Disaster is unknown. If a Climate Disaster occurs, it will occur during a random four week period during the year, and for each resource, there is a probability that 50% of the resource’s installed capacity is unavailable during that period. A separate random variable will be drawn for each resource type.

After resolving the Demand Shock and the effect of any Climate Disaster (should one occur) on the availability of each resource, the game will optimize operations of all resources to minimize the overall cost of meeting demand, including penalties for not serving demand or meeting the targeted clean energy share for the Stage. The results of this optimal dispatch simulation will then be used to calculate and report the Reliability and Clean Energy scores for the Stage.

4. Resolution Phase

During this phase, the game calculates the reduction in cost for each resource due to Experience Curves and determines whether Social Backlash is triggered for any resource.

After calculating the effect of Experience Curves or Social Backlash, the game board is updated and the next Stage commences.

Game Board Settings

The following parameters are specified on the game board and known by the players:

Starting capacity: the starting capacity in GW of Existing Fossil and Existing Nuclear (if applicable) resources must be specified.

Maintenance and construction costs: the cost of maintaining existing resources or constructing new resources at the start of Stage 1 must be specified. This is expressed by entering the GW maintained/constructed per Build token.

Backlash risk: The risk of Social Backlash for each resource type must be designated as High, Medium, or Low.

Behind the scenes settings (for game masters)